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Explaining Instability in the New Mexico Female Prison Population

The use of various time series projection methods in estimating future female prison populations is addressed. This report contains the following parts: executive summary; overview; literature review -- overview and problems affecting prison population projection techniques; research methods -- overviews of univariate and multivariate methods and goodness of fit measures; and results for univariate and multivariate analysis and comparison of forecasting methods. While providing figures that overestimated growth (like all the models), the univariate ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) Component Transfer Model provided the "best fit." Accession Number: 019246

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