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Uses and Abuses of Empirical Evidence in the Death Penalty Debate

The ability of statistical evidence to show that the death penalty decreases the number of homicides is examined. Six sections comprise this article: theory—what the implications of the death penalty for homicide rates are; a century of murders and executions; the importance of comparison groups; panel data methods; instrumental variables estimates; and a partial reconciliation—lack of statistical power and reporting bias. The authors’ “estimates suggest not just “reasonable doubt” about whether there is any deterrent effect of the death penalty, but profound uncertainty” (p. 794). Accession Number: 024182

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